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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it’s in the news, it’s too late...
WAR DIARY: Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2002
October 16, 2002
The previous twenty-four hours were relatively quiet, with little overt military action. The most interesting developments took place in Saudi Arabia, where a series of near, former and non-events were reported in a 24-hour span. Reports of attempts to destroy an oil terminal, an attempt to hijack a Saudi airliner and a car crashing harmlessly into the U.S. embassy created a constellation of non-events that made Saudi Arabia the focal point of the day.
STRATFOR's daily chronicle and analysis of key events in the march toward a U.S.-Iraq war, from 0000 to 2359 GMT.
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According to ABC News, U.S. and Saudi intelligence reported that an attack had been planned on the Ras Tanura terminal, Saudi Arabia's largest oil-loading point. The strike was planned to take place during the summer but was foiled when several dozen Saudis were arrested. According to ABC, the news was kept secret because it might embarrass the Riyadh and because of the impact it would have on oil prices.
What was not explained in the report was why intelligence sources -- probably U.S. -- would have decided to reveal the news to ABC, particularly in the context of the attack on the French oil tanker Limburg in Yemen. Obviously, U.S. intelligence is no longer interested in limiting embarrassment to Riyadh or in keeping oil prices under control. We suspect that officials in Washington want to point out to Saudi leaders their vulnerability to al Qaeda in order to generate a public justification for Saudi collaboration with the United States. Alternatively, somebody talked who shouldn't have.
At the same time that U.S. intelligence was leaking to ABC and these other mishaps were occurring, State Department official Alan Larson -- who is undersecretary of state for economic, business and cultural affairs --called on Saudi Arabia to commit itself to the rule of law, open markets and pluralism in order to help build a better relationship with the United States. While Larson praised Saudi leaders for their work in stabilizing world energy markets, he also called for a quick conclusion of talks -- which have stalled over business issues -- between Saudi officials and eight foreign firms over a $25 billion investment in three gas projects. Speaking in Riyadh, Larson said that "American law enforcement agencies have established solid relationships with their Saudi counterparts."
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
War Diary: Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2002 . . .