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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it’s in the news, it’s too late...
18 Oct 2002
The United States is preparing for potential military action against Iraq by sending San Diego-based aircraft carrier Constellation and its escort ships to the Persian Gulf in early November, earlier than originally scheduled, the San Diego Union-Tribune reported Oct. 18. The United States also plans to send hundreds of Marines from Camp Pendleton's 1st Marine Expeditionary Force headquarters, as well as an Army command staff from Germany, to Kuwait soon for exercises. 1700 GMT
17 Oct 2002
The U.S. Senate approved the $335.1 billion military spending bill, raising the budget $37.5 billion from 2001, the largest increase in military spending in two decades, the BBC reported Oct. 17. The Democratic-led Senate approved the bill 93-1 and $1.6 billion under the amount President George W. Bush had requested. It also withheld a $10 billion wartime contingency fund that would fall under Bush's authority. Reuters reported that a war on Iraq would cost an extra $100 billion over the approved military budget. 1751 GMT
Iraqi opposition group the Iraqi National Congress said that if Saddam Hussein were ousted, the post-Hussein government would review existing oil-development deals, Reuters reported Oct. 17. The group said it would open the oil sector to all companies, including U.S. majors, and give particular attention to contracts made with Russia and France. 1738 GMT
16 Oct 2002
Officials in Moscow have postponed the planned four-day visit of Indian Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani, one day before his scheduled departure. According to Russian military sources, this might be because Russian President Vladimir Putin's attention will be focused on a potential strike against Chechen militant targets in Georgia, which have been used to stage cross-border operations against Russia. The Hindustan Times offers a similar explanation from the Indian side, adding that perfect weather for a Russian strike is forecasted for the coming days.
Meanwhile, Russian military sources in the northern Caucasus tell STRATFOR that Russian GRU spetznaz units and a ground-attack squadron in Mozdok, the main air base in the region, have been ordered to prepare for missions in Georgia's Pankisi Gorge within days. As justification for an attack, Putin might argue that Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze has not followed through on a pledge to extradite some Chechen militants recently detained in Georgia. If Putin moves ahead with a strike, it could signal that Moscow and Washington indeed have made an "Iraq-for-Georgia" deal, and that Russia will abandon its opposition to U.S. military action against Iraq.
1855 GMT
U.S. President George W. Bush signed a congressional resolution Oct. 16 that allows the use of military action to disarm Iraq and destroy its weapons of mass destruction, Platts reports. Bush emphasized that he has not ordered military action and hopes it will not be necessary.
1837 GMT
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein won another seven-year term, with 100 percent of the vote, in an Oct. 15 referendum, Reuters reports. Hussein's name was the only one on the ballot, and voters were given a "yes" or "no" choice. Authorities urged voters to show their support for the Iraqi leader despite U.S. President George W. Bush's openly declared goal of toppling the regime.
1543 GMT
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Dan
Situation Reports: Iraq War Room . . .