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U.S. Timed Statement on North Korean Nuclear Program Meant To Pressure China
October 21, 2002
Summary
The U.S. State Department said Oct. 16 that North Korea has admitted to having a nuclear weapons program. Such news isn't all that surprising, but the timing of the statement -- just before the China-U.S. presidential summit -- is. Washington now has made North Korean behavior a key issue of U.S.-Chinese relations and will expect China to keep its neighbor under control.
Analysis
The U.S. State Department released a statement late Oct. 16 claiming North Korean officials had admitted to having a program to enrich uranium, a step in the production of nuclear weapons. According to the statement, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly, during an early October visit to Pyongyang, confronted North Korean officials with recent U.S. intelligence that Pyongyang had such a program. The statement said the North Korean officials admitted it, blamed Washington and said U.S. actions had nullified the 1994 Agreed Framework, which had ended North Korea's nuclear program in return for foreign-sponsored light water nuclear reactors.
That North Korea has a nuclear program is not all that surprising. U.S. intelligence officials have suspected that for some time, and Washington has hinted as much before. Recently, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld told the media that North Korea has nuclear weapons in its arsenal and continues to develop nuclear weapons. The interesting element here is the timing of this release.
The State Department chose to wait two weeks after Pyongyang's admission to reveal it, issuing its report on the eve of Kelly's Oct. 17 visit to Beijing. In China, Kelly is making final preparations before Chinese President Jiang Zemin's visit to U.S. President George W. Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas later this month. Beijing has placed great importance on Jiang's trip since it will be his last major overseas visit before a series of leadership changes in China, in which Jiang is expected to step down from most of his official posts.
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(c) 2002 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
U.S. Timed Statement on North Korean Nuclear Program Meant To Pressure China . . .
