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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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With Elections, Will Bahrain Turn Toward Violence?
October 22, 2002
Summary
Bahrain's Shiite opposition groups are planning to boycott parliamentary elections on Oct. 24. Such a boycott could trigger political unrest and put the U.S. 5th Fleet in jeopardy, just as Washington prepares for war with Iraq.
King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa.
Image Credit: l'Agence France-Presse.
Analysis
Bahraini King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa begged Shiite opposition groups Oct. 21 to reconsider a decision to boycott parliamentary elections slated for Oct. 24. In a nationally televised address, Hamad said, " I urge each one of you today to answer your country's call; Bahrain today calls upon you to participate in the elections to choose whomsoever you see fit to represent you and deliver your voice through the National Assembly."
The elections, the first in almost three decades, have been called in an effort to give the country's Shiite majority a greater role in the political process and ease increasingly heated opposition to the Sunni-dominated government. Low voter turnout, however, will highlight the fact that the king's weak attempts to placate the opposition have failed. The net result could be further alienation of the Shiite majority and could set the stage for a future round of political unrest.
The fallout from the elections could help shape U.S. plans to attack Iraq. If a large percentage of the voting public fails to participate in elections, then political tensions are sure to worsen. In that event, Manama would be forced either to offer substantive concessions to majority opposition groups or to resort to force in order to maintain stability. Either avenue could upset the delicate political balance and place U.S. forces stationed on the island in jeopardy.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
With Elections, Will Bahrain Turn Toward Violence . . . ?