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U.S. Sends Subtle Warning to Pakistan . . .

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U.S. Sends Subtle Warning to Pakistan
October 22, 2002

Summary
Through a press leak, U.S. officials are saying that Pakistan illegally aided North Korea's nuclear weapons program. The leak appears to be a subtle attempt to make sure that Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf -- who recently gained new leverage against Washington -- remains cooperative in the battle against al Qaeda.


Analysis
Only two days after U.S. State Department officials announced that North Korea had admitted to possessing an active nuclear weapons program, the New York Times reported Oct. 18 that Pakistan had aided Pyonyang's weapons development in exchange for missiles. The article stated that the equipment supplied by Islamabad -- possibly gas centrifuges needed to create weapons-grade uranium -- apparently was part of a 1997 trade designed to help Pakistan build an effective deterrent to India's nuclear arsenal.


The timing of the leak is telling: It comes soon after Pakistan's Oct. 10 elections, which boosted the power of Islamist parties. By releasing the information concerning North Korea, the Bush administration apparently is renewing its pressure on Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to remain cooperative with Washington's efforts to battle terrorism.

For more than a year, Musharraf has been squeezed between Washington and a potential Islamic backlash within his own country. However, the results of Pakistan's Oct. 10 elections left him in a somewhat improved position. Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-e-Azam faction, or PML(QA) was the clear winner, but the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal Pakistan (MMA) -- a coalition of Islamic parties opposed to U.S. actions in Afghanistan and Pakistan -- came in a close second.

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(c) 2002 Stratfor, Inc.

Dan

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