Mr. Blix's order to the Iraqis to destroy their al-Samoud-2 missiles sets in motion a moment of truth opportunity for both the Iraqis and the Bush administration. If the Iraqis choose to comply it will be very hard for Mr. Bush to press his UN resolution for war. Indeed, it will be very hard for him to go to war at all. If the Iraqis choose to resist one can count on a UN resolution with sufficient fudge room for the U.S. to proceed with all deliberate speed.

One hopes that Mr. Hussein can see the wisdom in cooperating with Mr. Blix's demand. The missiles only extend Saddam's reach by about two dozen miles - and they will be rendered effectively useless after the first 48 hours of war anyway. And, if he fails to cooperate, Bush/Blair will have their UN mandate even if it is less than explicit about the use of force.

Frankly, if the Iraqis disassemle the missiles it will be very difficult to argue that they are not cooperating. Since Blix's last report, the Iraqis are allowing scientists to be interviewed and U2 overflights to proceed. The inspectors have effectively determined that Saddam has no nuclear weapons program. What they have yet to ascertain is if he has large quantities of chemical and biological weapons stored somewhere.

How Saddam responds to this test will likely have signifanct consequences for American public opinion. Presently about 60% of Americans support toppling Saddam, but only with UN support. If Saddam cooperates, the link between war and UN support will remain. If he doesn't, the polls will be rendered academic....we will go to war.