A lot of people have written Turkey off as a northern front, but Erdogan looks to be heading for prime minister after the election today, and the Turkish position is now by no means settled, and may even have been turned around already. From a couple of sources I have heard (no independent confirmation), equipment and troops are offloading at Turkish ports even as I type this.

If this is true, look for the northern front to proceed largely as originally planned.

Knowing that this series of events would happen may be the reason the military and administration have appeared unruffled by the turndown of Turkey as a base earlier.