Let's hope this article is right. If so, then this will be over quickly with minimal casualties on both sides.

"We are looking at wholesale desertions in some areas," said an intelligence officer.



"In the southern area, where there are six Iraqi divisions, fifty per cent of their officers are planning to surrender once the campaign opens.

"There's a lot of talk of waiting until the war starts, because of the danger to the officers' families. It's also been expressed that most want a quick and sudden or surprise attack, so that they have the excuse for not putting up greater resistance."

So poor is morale that Saddam ordered the deployment of Iraqi special forces officers in some areas to prevent regular officers from deserting.

The last report of such action was received within the last two days.

Relying on human intelligence - British and US special forces already within Iraq who are observing Iraqi military movements as well as establishing contacts - and covert aerial surveillance, it is estimated that 73 per cent of the regular Iraqi army in the south of the country has already made up its mind to surrender to British and US troops.

In one dramatic example, the reports note that a US "psy ops" - psychological operation - unit dropped leaflets on Iraq's 51st Mechanised Division on March 9 and March 10.

Four days later, 20 per cent of the division had deserted and was no longer in the area. "Many of those who have already gone are reporting that the rest are preparing to surrender," said an intelligence officer.

In northern Iraq between 43 and 75 per cent of regular soldiers, depending upon their regiment, have already fled. Iraqi tribal leaders in the region have also abandoned Saddam and defected to the Kurds in the Northern No-Fly Zone.

Two days ago in the town of Chamchamal, 50 kilometres (31 miles) from the Iraqi border with Turkey, soldiers attempted to surrender to the Kurdish civilian population. They were fired upon by their own side, causing civilians to scatter.

In and around Baghdad the desertion rate is lower, but even among Saddam's elite Republican Guard divisions - whose loyalty to their leader has been unquestioned until now - 23 per cent have deserted.