Since I have no qualms about opening my mouth and erasing all doubt, I'm going to predict that we leave the North "back door" of Baghdad open to Iraqi forces. They will see an escape route to Takrit which we've been led to believe has no coalition forces nearby. We would prefer that we not have to use heavy force in a city of 5 million folks, so we want to present the alternatives of surrendering and fleeing. If they go for escape from Baghdad, we can get them in the open.
I predict that everyone in the media will be in a downer mood after we sieze Baghdad and it's finally realized by the press that the hardcore in Takrit still remains. That populace is the least likely to embrace Ameticans.