Why are the Canadians suffering so much higher mortality from SARS than anywhere else? I don't have exact numbers, but they have had 10-11 deaths and (last I heard) less than 200 cases.
USA has had 170+ cases and no deaths?
LJ might know the answer to this- but it seems that I remember that a virus is very unstable when it emerges into a now population or species, and this Virus (if it really did come from an avian coronavirus) seems to be living up to that. I suppose my concern is if it is this unstable, we may see worse strains emerging at random...
If this really is as contagious as the common cold, I don't think we are going to be able to contain it- just slow it down a lot. If it is cold-like, EVERYONE will get this over the coming year or two (supposing no vaccine).
However, like I said on space back when WHO issued their travel advisory, if it really is as contagious as the common cold, there would have been people keeling over next to us by the time the WHO even knew what was going on.
Its the seeming instability of this bug that concerns me... If it is like the cold, where it mutates rapidly eough that a vaccine is worthless before it is decanted, and it keeps this 2%-10% death rate, we could be looking at a tough few years ahead...
Or worse, if another 'Canada' strain emerges in the third world with less availability of medical treatments...
Anyway. Like I said, We may be safe BECAUSE this has been around for months and has not infected millions and millions. This might be another 1998 H5N1 avian flu where the bullet missed us by inches.
So all of this is just speculation, I really don't know much about current biology, though I studied it once-upon-a-time. It is concerning though....
Davin
Canada and SARS/Speculation
