I wouldn't be too quick to put any money down on Dubya getting the boot in '04. I admit it's still a long way off, but some figures from a recent New York Times/CBS News Poll look pretty good for Bush.

"At home, the fall of Baghdad has fortified President Bush's political standing. The poll found that 73 percent of Americans approve of his job performance — up from 59 percent the week before the war — and that his approval rating among Democrats was 61 percent."

I repeat...."his approval rating among Democrats was 61 percent."

"But beyond Mr. Bush's approval rating, a figure that typically gyrates with changing times, the number of Americans who believe the country is heading in the right direction has jumped nearly 20 percentage points since February, to 56 percent. That measure is closely watched by pollsters as a reliable indicator of the re-election prospects of an incumbent."

"The Times/CBS News poll found evidence that the Democrats are not in as strong a position as they presumably would like on the issue that they believe could return them to power — the economy. Americans are exactly divided, 42 percent to 42 percent, on which party would do a better job in managing the economy.

And there has been a jump of 7 percentage points since January, to 54 percent, in the number of Americans who said they had confidence in Mr. Bush's ability to make the right decisions about the economy."