Current Events — HabitableZone

Current Events

SARS - more questions, higher death rate?

It seems the death rate for SARS is much higher than initially estimated - something I've tried to point out for a while. For reference, the 1918-19 influenza epidemic that killed 25,000,000 people had a death rate of less than 3%.

The World Health Organization (WHO) initially estimated that the death rate from the virus was 5%.
But the new study - the first to be based on a statistically sound sample of 1,425 cases - puts the death rate at one in five (20%) of those admitted to hospital
Experts do not yet know whether there have been large numbers of Sars-infected patients who recovered in their homes without ever being admitted to hospital - which would reduce the overall death rate.
Scientists fear that the fact that the death rate from Sars appears to be higher than first thought may be a sign that the virus is mutating into more deadly forms.
However, it may just be that the WHO under-estimated the risk.


BBC

I've also heard that investigators have increased the estimated incubation period for SARS from 7-10 days, to 2 weeks. A longer incubation period means more likelihood of spreading.

Also, the death rate for those over 60 is more like 40-50%, as compared to 1-2% for other generally similar respiratory illnesses in that age group; fortunately, SARS has not killed any children or teens as yet.

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