...is that you're assuming how such a vote would turn out on the basis of sheer speculation. Many of Islam's most strident fundamentalists are women. And, fundamentalism can be found among not just the Shiite population, but also among the Sunni and the Kurds. In otherwords, a vote may not turn out as you suggest.

But the most difficult problem lies well before any vote can be cast. It is the question of what kind of constitution will Iraq have. We want a secular democracy. Fundamentalists want a form of theocracy or islamic republic.

This constitution will not be put to a vote of the common Iraqi, but crafted with an eye towards bringing disparate factions within the country together. The only way this can be reasonably achieved given the influence and authority of islamic clerics in the country, is to tip the hat their way.

In otherwords, choices made about what kind of government Iraq will have will be made without a vote of "the people" ever having been taken, and we will need to construct some form of compromise to keep these clerics in our "camp."

Don't underestimate the power and fervor of religious fundamentalism.