Not unexpectedly, the Sunni Arabs (20 percent of the population) who were the backbone of Saddam's support, are providing an armed resistance to any new government not dominated by Sunni Arabs. For centuries, and particularly in the last few decades, all important jobs were held by Sunni Arabs. In particular, the army and secret police were led, and largely staffed by, Sunni Arabs. With Saddam out of power, the Sunni Arab community has suddenly lost access to money and power. Well, not entirely. Many Sunni Arabs stashed cash and valuables abroad or within Iraq. Sunni Arabs have lots of guns and heavy weapons at home, and are using them to snipe at American troops and stage ambushes. Sunni Arabs are not great fighters, and usually get the worst of it anytime they encounter coalition troops. But many Sunni Arabs believe their own propaganda and will make these attacks anyway. But Sunni Arabs have more to worry about than coalition troops and being tossed off the gravy train. In the south, Shia Arabs are increasingly attacking Baath party members (Shia or Sunni, makes no difference), and in the north there are still gun battles between Sunni Arab and Kurdish militias. Many Sunni Arabs will never accept their reduced circumstances and will fight on until killed or jailed. A new Iraqi government, dominated by Shia Arabs and Kurds, will have to deal with this problem for generations to come, just as they have for generations past.
Demobilizing the Iraqi army will mean making lump sum payments to the full time professionals below the rank of colonel. This includes the senior NCOs. Most of the troops were conscripts, who didn't get paid much anyway and were content just to go home and be done with the unpopular army service. Colonels and generals will have to prove they were not Baath party activists before they can receive any severance pay. These officers were almost always active Baath party members and used their army jobs for personal gain. Corruption was widespread in Iraq, and Saddam encouraged it so that everyone was "guilty" if he had to dump them.
To deal with the unemployment problem, which Saddam used as means of controlling the population (government jobs were doled out to supporters), the coalition is hiring hundreds of thousands of Iraqis for public works projects. Saddam allowed the nations infrastructure to largely fall apart over the last two decades.
Iraqis are being allowed to keep their rifles and pistols as long as they keep them at home and are not caught on the street with them. But coalition troops are demanding that RPGs, machine-guns and other heavy weapons. Many Iraqis with these weapons will not turn them in because there is a black market for the heavier weapons and no one wants to lose that kind of money.
Saddam Hussein is believed to be using cash and terror to stay hidden in Sunni Arab areas. Cash and terror is what Saddam has used for decades. He moves from home to home with a small staff. Before he arrives, some of the children of the family are taken away as hostages. If anyone in the family informs on Saddam, the kids will be killed. After Saddam and his crew have left, the hostages are returned and a cash payment (up to $50,000) is made. Thus Saddams hosts are simultaneously terrorized and rewarded. This is a winning combination in Iraq.
Much of the looting in Baghdad, and elsewhere, is, upon closer examination, sabotage by Baath party activists. It is thought that the Sunni Arabs, via the Baath party they have dominated since the 1960s, are trying to keep Iraq unstable enough so they can take over again and re-impose their police state. The Shia Arabs and Kurds, who comprise 80 percent of the population, as well as the coalition, can be expected to oppose this sort of thing.
The free food distribution Saddam had used for over a decade to control the population, has been resumed.
This Summer, recruiting and training for a new Iraqi army will begin. The new force will have about 50,000 troops. Until this year, the Iraqi army had a strength of about 400,000, about a third of which were long term professionals and the rest conscripts serving up to two years. Because of poor living conditions and abuse from some of the professional NCOs and officers, there was a lot of desertion. The new Iraqi army will probably be all volunteer, with higher pay and better living and working conditions than the previous army.
Coalition troops and intelligence forces are going after the Baath party, collecting information on who the members are and what they are doing. Dozens of Baath party members have been arrested recently. Interrogations have uncovered a Baath party plan to try and regain control of Iraq.
From FYEO http://www.strategypage.com/aboutus/default.asp
Some notes on Iraq
