That Arianespace took the lion's share in the space commercial business (launcher) has to do with the Shuttle's failure to replace ELV's in all aspects. Then, there's a lot of inertia (it takes years to develope a new launcher).
Is the manned space program a technological testbed or are humans in space essential?
And also: should there be few humans for a long time in space or many humans for a short time?
And shouldn't goals be : improve the spacesuits, build a closed ecological system in the station, reduce launch costs.
Mars has Robert Zubrin, but I wonder if the manned space program wouldn't be better off if a guy like Zubrin hadn't concentrated his mind into making LEO more accessible to humans.

Raoul