I agree that your suppositions are reasonable and lead to a similar time frame for complex multicellular life and probably something similar to mammals or birds, but the more unique path to human intelligence is far more random. More to the point even with exactly parallel biological evolution a mere 100 year difference in technological advancement is likely to result in very different capability levels. The Star Trek universe of roughly equivalent societies has near 0 probability of happening unless the most advanced society shares technology readily (unlike Start Trek).

Regards,
Mark