Anyway, you guys do a much more complete job of it than I have patience for, so quit your griping.

re: Do you know something about effiecient market theory that all the statisticians and business academics don't?

No, I know what they know which is that investers only know what they know. Being a gambler in this field doesn't give you special knowledge in terrorism. The real experts are supposed to keep their intel secret. Will they be permitted to play?

Can you see Merril Lynch opening a department to analyze terrorism and advise their clients when to buy and sell? Jeez! I thought we wanted to stamp it out, not institutionalize it!

If you are so quick to discount this predictive model, then how can you be so quick to invest in global warming models that are based on the same statistical principles of risk and uncertainty?

Actually, I hadn't discounted their predictive model at all. I was only pointing out that it was politically stupid. But for a change, the words you put in my mouth actually fit. I don't think that this market would predict terrorism any better than the stock market predicts economic prosperity. Ever hear of bubbles?

I really don't see any connection between this and the study of global warming. Sorry.