http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/Politics/wherethedeficitcamefrom.html

In 1981 the Reagan Administration forecast that adoption of its economic program would reduce the then $60 billion deficit to zero within three years. Instead, in three years the deficit was nearly $200 billion.

In 1982 the Reagan Administration forecast that continuation of its economic program would reduce the deficit to less than $80 billion within three years. Instead, in three years the deficit was $220 billion.

The 1983 forecast was the closest the Reagan Administration came to an accurate track of the future deficit. But its prime mover--CEA chairman Martin Feldstein--was frozen out by White House aides because of his insistence that the Administration live up to its rhetoric and cut the deficit.

In 1985 the Reagan Administration once again forecast that the deficit was shrinking, and by fiscal 1990 would be less than $100 billion. Once more it was a lousy forecast.

As the previous page showed, the excessive optimism seen about deficits did not arise because Congress refused to go along with Presidential plans to cut spending in the 1980s--but because the then-Administration had an interest in minimizing the seriousness of the deficit problem by highballing the economic forecast.