POLL ANALYSES: Clark Bolts to Front of Democratic Field

Democrats competitive with Bush in trial heats

Wednesday, September 24, 2003

By Jeffrey M. Jones

Gallup News Service Writer

For the first time in this election season, Gallup tested hypothetical presidential matchups between Bush and each of the five leading Democratic candidates. The data suggest the election would be close between Bush and any of the Democratic contenders if the election were held today, with the gaps among registered voters ranging from a three-point Democratic lead (Clark over Bush, 49% to 46%) to a three-point Republican lead (Bush over Dean, 49% to 46%), all within the poll's margin of error.

PRINCETON, N.J. -- GNS
The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll shows Ret. Army Gen. Wesley Clark's entry into the race for the Democratic nomination has for the moment greatly changed the campaign's character. Just days after announcing, Clark has almost a 10-percentage-point lead over all other candidates for the nomination. Additionally, Clark tends to fare better among the leading Democratic candidates in hypothetical head-to-head matchups with President George W. Bush, although the data currently indicate the race would be close if the election were held today, regardless of which Democrat would oppose Bush.

The new poll, conducted Sept. 19-21, shows Clark leading the field of 10 Democratic candidates for that party's presidential nomination. Twenty-two percent of Democrats who are registered to vote say they are most likely to support Clark for the nomination, giving him nearly a double-digit lead over former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (13%). Clark has a slightly larger advantage among Democratic registered voters over Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (11%), Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt (11%), and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman (10%). None of the other candidates receive more than 4% support.

Clark's announcement last week came just as Gallup observed a sharp increase in the percentage of Democrats who say they are closely following the news about the nomination campaign. An Aug. 25-26 Gallup Poll found just 35% of Democrats saying they were following news about the nomination very or somewhat closely, but in the latest poll, about half of Democrats (51%) say this.

Clark has made a strong surge in recent weeks, and has greatly transformed the character of the race for now. When first included in the Democratic nomination "ballot" in late August, prior to his formal entry into the campaign, only 2% of Democratic registered voters said they were supporting Clark. Roughly two weeks later that support increased to 10% as the retired general's flirtation with a presidential bid attracted increasing media attention. And in the new poll, taken just days after his announcement that he would seek the nomination and only about 10 days after the prior poll, Clark's supported has more than doubled to 22% among Democratic registered voters.

The key question for Clark would be whether he can sustain this momentum. Polls conducted throughout the year have showed similar bounces for candidates just after they formally announced their intentions to run, but these increases have been short-lived. And as this suggests, much can change between now and the first crucial contests in Iowa and New Hampshire next January. Earlier Gallup analysis also shows that polls taken in the fall before the primary election season have not been good predictors of who the eventual Democratic nominee would be.

At this point, too, Clark is not well known among the general public. Fifty-two percent of Americans know Clark well enough to rate him, and the ratio of positive to negative opinions is 3-to-1 (39% to 13%). That leaves nearly half of Americans (48%) without a firm opinion on Clark either way.

The Democratic race was tight in the Sept. 8-10 CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, with Dean, Kerry, Lieberman, and Gephardt ahead of the remainder of the field, but each with only between 12% and 16% support. Earlier polls consistently showed Lieberman in the lead, although that was probably because of his higher name recognition among the public compared with the other contestants, combined with a low level of attention being paid to the campaign by most Democrats.

The new poll also asked Democrats who would be their second choice for the nomination, to help get a broader measure of the appeal each candidate has. These preferences will become more important once candidates begin to withdraw from the campaign, which could happen in early fall once third-quarter fundraising reports are released. When combining Democratic registered voters' first and second choices, Clark still has the greatest appeal among the candidates at 29%, but Dean (24%), Gephardt (23%), Kerry (23%), and Lieberman (22%) are fairly close behind. No other candidate registers 10% support.

* Trial Heats Suggest Close Presidential Election

(More: Gallup.com)
2003 © The Gallup Organization.

Dan