Current Events — HabitableZone

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"might" is the key word

I am sure van Creveld has his supporters and detractors. A review of some of his opinions is here

In a number of books, for instance Nuclear proliferation and the future of conflict, published in 1993 (New York, Free Press) and The transformation of war (New York, Free Press, 1991) Van Creveld claims that nuclear proliferation has a stabilizing effect on international relations simply because government leaders everywhere understand the nature and implications of these destructive weapons and therefore refrain from using them. He even argues that the conduct of large-scale wars is no longer suited to achieve foreign policy objectives because of the fear of escalation to a full-scale nuclear war.

Van Creveld’s thesis is thought provoking but also questionable. His argument that nuclear weapons reduce the risk of large-scale (conventional) war is difficult to reconcile with the fact that there have been quite a number of wars from 1945 onwards. To make matters worse, there is simply no scientific method available that allows us to say that there is a causal link between stability in international relations and the existence of nuclear weapons. Circumstantial evidence may support Van Creveld’s theory but it may also support alternative explanations of the relative stability of the period 1945 until 1989 as for instance the reconnaissance revolution that enables both sides to evaluate each other’s capabilities to a degree that is totally unprecedented in the history of relations between great powers. Moreover, the potential destabilizing effects of, for instance, technical malfunctioning of rockets, terrorism and the temptation to deploy tactical (thus low impact) nuclear weapons are still on the table.


I have to wonder how popular his opinion on nuclear proliferation is in polite circles. Perhaps the solution to all our problems is to supply nukes to all members of the UN

"It seems that Van Creveld is much better in explaining the rise of the state than in predicting its decline.

The author of this quote is Arend Jan Boekestijn, professor of international relations at Utrecht University

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