If you'll review Tom's comment, you'll see that he cited estimates from as early as 1914.

In 1914 ... When the US Bureau of Mines estimated reserves at 10 years.
In 1939 ... When the Department of the Interior gave a 13 year projection.
In 1972 ... When The Limits to Growth predicted we'd be out of oil in 20 years.
In 1987 ... When Paul Erlich said the oil shock would come in the '90s

You're certainly welcome to defend the position that incorrect estimates based on technology from 1914, 1939 or even 1972 can be used to discount late 20th or early 21st century projections, but I doubt you'll have much success.

A presigious British astronomer was quoted in the early 1950's as saying that "Space flight is utter bilge." Are we to believe, then, that since this guy was wrong, everybody today is also wrong when they make any guesstimates about the future of space travel?

I think not.

Consider this press releasefrom 1998, for example

Together EarthSat and RADARSAT developed a breakthrough method to use satellite remote sensing to detect natural marine oil seeps and to differentiate them from oil spills. The companies estimate that this technology application has contributed to the discovery of hundreds of millions of barrels of new oil reserves estimated at over US$1B, and the avoidance of over US$500M in drilling dry holes. It also has reduced detection costs from about US$20 per line kilometer, to 50 cents U.S. per square kilometer.

Xray vision spysats? Not quite yet, perhaps, but we're getting close. As technology improves, we will have better ways of detecting, and extracting, the remaining pools of petroleum on the planet.

We will also eventually develop newer, perhaps better sources of energy. It remains to be seen what level of disruption to civilization this will entail, when it will happen, what it will cost, and how long it will take.

But technology, no matter how good, is not likely to create new petroleum fields. As proven reserves dwindle and consumption rises, those remaining oil fields become increasingly valuable. So valuable, in fact, that nations may take extreme risks in order to control them, as we have seen.

S