It's WAY too early to tell. Just a few weeks ago John Kerry's campaign was considered dead. Anything could happen and the polls could change week to week. Both candidates will get a boost from their conventions. Any debates could be decisive. Nadar and/or Perot figures could tilt the election one way or the other. Another terrorist attack could change the political landscape. Or OBL could be captured a week before the election!

If I had to guess now I'd say Kerry will win this thing based purely on the motivation of those on the left to get out and vote, and the lack of motivation on the right to do the same. Kerry's coattails would unlikely be enough to carry the House or Senate.