Release damages prewar claims

Classified analysis highlighted problem with intelligence

JOHN DIAMOND GANNETT NEWS SERVICE The Olympian Online

WASHINGTON -- A classified U.S. intelligence study done three months before the war in Iraq predicted a problem now confronting the Bush administration: the possibility that Iraqi weapons of mass destruction might never be found.
The study by a team of U.S. intelligence analysts, military officers and civilian Pentagon officials warned that U.S. military tactics, guerrilla warfare, looting and lying by Iraqi officials would undermine the search for banned Iraqi weapons. Portions of the study were made available to USA Today. Three high-ranking U.S. intelligence officials described its purpose and conclusions.

"Locating a program that ... has been driven by denial and deception imperatives is no small task," the December 2002 report said. "Prolonged insecurity with factional violence and guerrilla forces still at large would be the worst outcome for finding Saddam's WMD arsenal."

The report went to the National Security Council but was not specifically shown to President Bush, the officials said.

The study findings contradict statements by U.S. officials that caches of banned weapons would be found.

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