I wouldn't go out on a limb and call for a "landslide," but despite the huge number of "analysts" dragging their feet, the economy is going to be looking pretty damn good come November. While I would be quite surprised to see the over 2 million new jobs predicted by some, well over a million new jobs and an unemployment rate heading down to the 5 percent mark, or with luck, even lower, would not be out of the question.

Iraq could still hit a snag, with civil unrest and problems in turning over power. This article on Basra is not encouraging, and indicates that the "laid back" approach is not all it's cracked up to be. Some Iraqi bloggers say we are not cracking down hard enough.

What will be an important factor is American casualties. While hundreds of Iraqi casualties and relatively few American casualties would not be good news for the long-term prospects of Iraq, I suspect it would not be considered seriously bad news by many voters unless American casualties go up significantly.

Good to see you getting the hang of the HTML! It takes practice--I know.