If you Google "terrorists overplay hand"...
you get over 500 hits many of which are examples of where terrorists overplayed their hand in someone's opinion.
Mixed in, there are some examples of others overplaying their hand.
IMO they have overplayed their hand at times but you can read and decide.
One glaring example was 9-11. I suspect they would do something less spectacular if they had it to do over. Perhaps you might agree that our response was harsher than they expected and damaged them far more than they planned.