Bush Overtakes Kerry

"Too liberal" tag sticking to Kerry

Tuesday, March 30, 2004
By Lydia Saad

Gallup News Service Writer

There has been no change over the past several weeks in the percentage of Republicans and Democrats supporting their own party's candidate, or in the candidate preferences of independents. Rather, the increase in support for Bush over the past few weeks comes mostly from an increase in the percentage of Americans identifying themselves as Republicans, and a comparable decline in self-identified Democrats. This could be the natural result of a shift in the political environment now that the Democratic primary season has concluded.

PRINCETON, NJ -- GNS
After trailing Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry in voter support throughout much of the Democratic primary season, President George W. Bush has taken a slight lead in the race for president. According to a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted March 26-28, Bush has picked up four points compared to early March, putting him slightly ahead of Kerry among registered voters: 49% to 46%. Earlier this month, Bush had trailed Kerry by five points, 45% to 50%.

Horse Race -- Recent Trend

registered voters

Image Credit: Gallup.com

Third-party candidate Ralph Nader's ultimate impact on the election will greatly depend on his success in petitioning for or otherwise earning placement onto state ballots this fall. But under ideal circumstances, assuming he does appear on most states' ballots, the current poll suggests that 5% of registered voters would back him, taking most of this support from Kerry. With Nader in the race, Kerry's support drops from 46% to 43%, while Bush's support drops from 49% to 48% -- giving Bush a five-point lead for president.

More Good News for Bush

There are several other positive indications of Bush's re-election chances in the new poll. To some degree, these may be logical extensions of his enhanced popularity, rather than causes of it. But there is also some evidence that voters have become less enthralled with Kerry than they were during the excitement of the Democratic primary season.

The percentage of Americans approving of the way Bush is handling his job as president increased slightly over the past month. Just over half the public, 53%, now approves of the way he is handling his job, while 44% disapprove. This is up from 50% approval in mid-March and is a statistically significant improvement over the 49% recorded earlier in the month.

Furthermore, while Bush's favorable image rating from the American people has remained stable at 56% to 57% over the past month, Kerry's favorable image has declined from 60% to 53%.

In retrospect, Kerry's positive image with Americans may have peaked in late January, shortly after he won the New Hampshire primary (following a surprise victory in the Iowa caucuses a week earlier). His win in New Hampshire catapulted him to front-runner status for the Democratic nomination -- and occurred before the Bush campaign began targeting Kerry in earnest. At that point, 61% of Americans had a favorable image of Kerry and only 23% had an unfavorable image of him. His image rating held at the 60% level in mid-February, but today has fallen to 53%. More than a third, 36%, now have an unfavorable image of him.

By contrast, Bush's image rating has held steady since mid-February, with 56% to 57% saying they have a favorable image of the president and 41% to 42% having an unfavorable image. These ratings are not as positive as what he enjoyed prior to the start of the Democratic primary season, but are a notable improvement over the 52% favorable rating he received in late January -- the same time that Kerry's image was soaring.

When factoring in the percentage viewing each candidate unfavorably, Bush and Kerry are about evenly matched today. This is in sharp contrast with the last two image measures taken between late January and mid-February, when Kerry's net favorable image was significantly greater than Bush's. Bush held a strong lead on this comparison in early January, but that was at a point when many Americans were still unfamiliar with Kerry.

Net Favorable Ratings

(% favorable minus % unfavorable)

Image Credit: Gallup.com

* The "Liberal" Tag Sticking to Kerry

* More on the Horse Race

* Survey Methods

(More: Gallup.com)

2004 © The Gallup Organization.

Dan