May 10th -- Prediction Day

Early May of 2003 was an exciting time in the annals of space exploration. Scaled Composites and SpaceX had just announced the details of their hitherto secret programs, and it suddenly seemed as if anything was possible in the realm of nongovernmental spaceflight. Caught up in the excitement, I decided to do a silly little thought experiment: I would extrapolate 10 years into the future, going year by year, using the current trends of the various entrepreneurial space companies, and see where that got me. I was rather surprised when 2013 turned out to have thousands of people in orbit, and a lunar cycler under construction. Seemed a tad optimistic, even to me, but that's where my “one year at a time” methodology got me.

So, I decided to teach myself a lesson: each year, I will look at my predictions from previous years, and see how they stack up against what has actually transpired. Then I will make new predictions, again looking ten years into the future. After only one year, this process probably won't be very illuminating. But by, say, 2013, I think it should at least provide an amusing record of what my expectations for the future have been. Hell, perhaps I'll even have gotten something right!

So, without further adieu, here were my prediction for the past year:

In 2003 I predicted:
> A handful of X-Prize competitors begin test flights,
> although none to full altitude. SpaceX launches its
> first first Falcon Explorer lightlift vehicle.

How I did:

Not so good. Although Scaled Composites did make a record-breaking flight, they were the only X-Prize competitor to do so. And it now seems that the schedule for the Falcon Explorer has slipped by 9-10 months. What is notable, however, is what happened that I *didn't* predict. I didn't predict, for example, the Chinese entry into space. Not because I didn't think it would happen -- I knew it would -- but because I thought it would have no particular bearing on the actual exploration of space, which I thought would be an entirely nongovernmental affair. In light of other events, however, I've begun to change my assessment.

I didn't predict that the Chinese would so unambiguously state their intention to have a human presence on the moon by 2020. Nor did I predict that the US president would announce the scrapping of the shuttle and re-commencement of deep space exploration, leading to a human presence on the moon by 2019 (and they say this isn't a race...), and then continuing on to Mars. Nor did I predict that Europe, Japan, and even India would begin making noises in similar directions.

The (re-)entry of governments onto the scene throws something of a wrench into my predictive process. Technological and economic development have a certain vague kind of predictability; politics, as near as I can ascertain, does not. It can accelerate things dramatically, as during the Apollo era, or it can inhibit things almost completely, as during the Shuttle era. Looking towards the future, I don't know which is more likely, but what the heck – this is all just guessing, anyway. In any case, from now on I will include at least some references to government activities in my predictions.

Now, looking at 2004:

In 2003, I predicted:
> Late in the year, the X-Prize is won, amid an
> appropriate media frenzy. SpaceX launches a couple
> of Falcon Explorers, working out the kinks and
> building up its reputation. (Allowing for a bit of
> realism, I'm going to guess that their medium-
> lightlift vehicle slips to 2005).

How I'm doing so far:

Pretty good. I'm still guessing that the X-Prize will be won in the latter half of the year, and it still seems reasonable that SpaceX will launch a Falcon Explorer or two. The hypothesized SpaceX mediun-lightlift vehicle has turned out to be the Falcon V – which will actually be a medium-lift – and its debut has indeed slipped to 2005. Actually, I'm going to predict that slips further, to 2006.

My 2004 predictions for the next 10 years:

2004: The X-Prize is won in the early fall, amid an appropriate media frenzy. Two other X-Prize teams also take to the air this year. The Falcon Explorer is finally launched near the end of the year.

2005 : A handful of additional suborbital companies begin doing test flights, while the X-Prize winner continues to refine their system, and begins offering rides to various celebrities and the like. Collectively, these suborbital outfits make a couple dozen flights over the course of the year (earning perhaps 30 people their astronaut wings). SpaceX launches four Falcon Explorers. China launches a multi-person Shenzhou mission, which lasts nearly a week. The Space Shuttle does *not* return to flight.

2006 : True commercial suborbital tourist operations begin, and well over 100 people earn their astronaut wings this year. The price initially begins at $100,000, but falls by 30% each year for the next 5 years. Suborbital companies also begin profiting from flying microgravity experiments and launching nanosats and microsats. The success of the Falcon Explorers -- about 10 flights occur this year -- gives birth to a whole new class of off-the-shelf smallsats, as LEO suddenly becomes affordable to universities, small businesses, and even consortia of non-profits and highschools. SpaceX and also launches their first Falcon V, carrying Bigelow Aerospace's 1/3rd scale space-station test article. Two more Shenzhou flights occur, practicing docking procedures with target vehicles. The Shuttle is officially mothballed (without having flown post-Columbia), and American officials are more vigorously casting about for another way to get to the ISS, in the meantime continuing to buy Soyuz flights from Russia.

2007 : The boom is now in full swing. Hundreds of suborbital flights take place, with around 1,000 people earning their astronaut wings. A competitor (perhaps Microcosm, or perhaps a re-invigorated Lockmart or Boeing) emerges to challenge SpaceX in providing cheap orbital launches. Both companies also begin collaborating with experienced suborbital operators to create orbital vehicles – which are now being demanded by both the tourist and governmental markets. China launches a small Salyut-class station, which is crewed on a part-time basis.

2008 : Over 2,000 people earn their astronaut wings in suborbital flights, although the novelty is beginning to fade slightly. Several new orbital spacecraft enter the market: one or two privately-developed US vehicles (with substantial governmental backing, per MM&B), as well as the Russian Klipper (which also has substantial private backing). The first private orbital spaceflight takes place, in a 4-person craft launched atop the a semi-reusable vehicle, which orbits the Earth several times. The ticket price is initially $5 million per person, but like the suborbital ventures, this falls by 30% per year for the next five years. Bigelow launches a small inflatable habitat, which serves as a temporarilly-inhabited destination for tourism flights. China conducts a manned circumlunar flight during the Beijing Olympics. This is done with a modified Shenzhou, and is more of a stunt than a sustainable advance in their program. Japan beings operation of a small, unmanned, suborbital VTVL.

2009 : Given the competitiveness, prestige, and strategic advantages which are increasingly associated with spaceflight, all the interested governments begin to dramatically accelerate their schedules. The US conducts its own stunt circumlunar flight; Europe and Japan intensify their domestic spacecraft development programs; India pragmatically looks towards purchasing some Russian or US commercial spacecraft. China expands its space station. Meanwhile, in the commercial sector, suborbital flights continue to slowly increase (to around 3,000 people per year), while over a hundred people make orbital flights, at increasingly reasonable prices. More companies enter the launch industry, and a new inexpensive medium-heavylift vehicle (45,000 – 100,000 lbs. To LEO) enters the market, its development largely spurred by the MM&B program.

2010 : Using the new medium-heavylift capability, Bigelow launches a cluster of several inflatable modules, forming the first true space hotel. Several hundred civilians make orbital spaceflights. Nobody bothers keeping track of the suborbital ones anymore. China performs another circumlunar flight, this time using hardware which is much more suited to the task. India launches its first astronauts, in a foreign spacecraft mounted atop a domestic ELV.

2011 : In the US, A fully-reusable space ferry commences operation, capable of shuttling a dozen people to and from orbit, and with theoretical turnaround times of a few hours. Bigelow's space hotel is expanded to accommodate them, and nearly a thousand people orbit the earth this year. A handful of commercial manufacturing facilities begin orbital operations, making exotic drugs and fiber optic materials. China and the US conduct brief lunar landings, and Russia does a circumlunar flight. Japan launches its first astronauts.

2012 : A true heavylift launch vehicle is developed, capable of launching over 100,000 lbs into LEO. Additional companies enter the space hotel & space manufacturing businesses. Thousands of people travel to and from LEO, and scores of people are orbiting the Earth at any given moment. Europe launches its first astronauts, while both Japan and India put up small space stations. China and the US both construct small, intermittently-occupied lunar bases.

2013 : Bigelow's "Lunar Cycler" is under construction. A suborbital joyride costs $3,000, while a basic ticket to orbit costs $150,000. Orbital stays range from $25,000 to $250,000 per day. The latest and greatest accommodations feature large picture windows, lunar-equivalent artificial gravity in the living areas, and sizable zero-gravity recreation rooms. LEO now has an average population of over 100 hundred people. The US and China expand their lunar bases, which can now accommodate a dozen people on a temporary basis. A commercial company lands an automated mining & manufacturing crawler on the moon, which tests the viability of constructing lunar photovoltaic farms. The law and politics of lunar real estate begins to become a rather hot topic.

2014: A long-range suborbital transport begins commercial operations. The Chinese and American lunar bases are now permanently occupied by about 20 people each, and a consortium of Russian, Indian, European, Japanese, and other interested parties begins construction of their own “non-aligned” lunar base. The US launches a Mars fly-by, while China lands on a near Earth asteroid, and officially claims it as Chinese territory. The Lunar Cycler begins commercial operations. The fracas over non-terrestrial real estate continues unabated, and is in danger of inhibiting commercial investment if it continues much longer.

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So, those are my current predictions for the next decade. See you next year!

Cheers,

Nathan

* A note on my terminology concerning launch vehicles: after the Saturn 5, I refuse to think of any payload under 100,000 lbs as "heavy lift". So, here's how I categorize launch vehicle capacities to LEO: ~0-10 lbs -- nanolift. ~10-100 lbs. -- microlift. ~100-1,000 lbs. -- ultra-lightlift. ~1,000-5,000 lbs -- lightlift. ~5,000-15,000 lbs -- medium-lightlift. ~15,000-45,000 lbs -- medium-lift. ~45,000-100,000 lbs -- medium-heavylift. ~100,000-250,000 lbs -- heavylift. ~250,000+ lbs -- ultra-heavylift.