Zogby makes the call: it's Kerry in 2004 (unless he screws up)
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews825.cfm
Granted, Zogby is a bit orientated towards the left, but that doesn't take anything away from his track record - and keep in mind that he was one of only a few pollsters to accurately capture Gore's surge in the final week in 2000.