In Public’s Eyes, Kerry and Bush at Parity on Iraq

Kerry leads on the economy, Bush on handling terrorism

Wednesday, May 12, 2004

By Frank Newport

Gallup News Service Writer

Bush continues to have a distinct advantage over Kerry when it comes to handling terrorism. This has been Bush's signature strength since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, and his advantage over Kerry on this issue has diminished only slightly over the past several months. Bush's approval rating on his handling of terrorism is 54%, which -- although down significantly from his ratings on terrorism last year -- continues to be higher than his overall approval rating, or his approval on other specific issues.

PRINCETON, NJ -- GNS
The American public is roughly split down the middle in terms of whether President George W. Bush or likely Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry would do the best job of handling the situation in Iraq. This marks a substantial change from two months ago, when Bush enjoyed a 15-point lead over Kerry on this issue. At the same time, Americans are significantly more likely to see Kerry, rather than Bush, as better able to handle the economy, while the president retains his positioning advantage against Kerry in terms of handling terrorism. All of this results in a situation in which the two candidates are essentially tied in the race for president among likely voters, although Kerry has moved out to a slight lead over Bush among registered voters.

Trial-Heat Ballot

The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted May 7-9, shows that Bush and Kerry would be in a neck-and-neck race if the presidential election were held today.

From a broad perspective, this represents little significant change over the last several months. From late March to the current survey, Kerry's percentage of support from likely voters has been within a narrow range between 45% and 49%. Bush's support has ranged only between 48% and 51% of likely voters during the same time.

Presidential Election 2004:

Bush vs. Kerry Trial Heat

among likely voters

Image Credit: The Gallup Organization

The lack of change in the intentions of likely voters is perhaps surprising given that Bush's overall job approval rating has dropped to its lowest level of his administration -- 46%. It appears that while the president's positioning in the eyes of voters has become more vulnerable -- as indicated by this job approval rating and the drop in support for U.S. involvement in Iraq -- Kerry has yet to take full advantage of it.

The current parity in the presidential race is partly a result of the fact that Bush is doing better, relatively speaking, among likely voters -- individuals Gallup says would be most likely to actually vote if the election were held today.

Bush does not fare as well among the larger group of all adult Americans who are registered to vote. Kerry has a slight 50% to 44% lead over Bush among this group. Kerry's percentage of the vote among registered voters increased from 47% to 50% between the May 2-4 poll and the May 7-9 poll, while Bush's decreased from 47% to 44%.

Presidential Election 2004:

Bush vs. Kerry Trial Heat

among registered voters

Image Credit: The Gallup Organization

Thus, commensurate with the drop in Bush's job approval rating, Kerry has managed to make some gains on Bush across the broad American population. But these gains have yet to translate to a change in sentiment among that smaller group of Americans who constitute the most likely voting population.

* Kerry Versus Bush on Issues

* Survey Methods

(More: Gallup.com)

2004 © The Gallup Organization.

Dan