It does seem that refinery capacity is one of the chokepoints in determining the retail price of gasoline in the US.

And another is the price of the oil which is inserted into the refinery stream.

What seems scary to me is the supply of oil going into the refinery/retail system regardless of capacity. Actually, it would appear that if the refineries couldn't handle the supply, the wholesale price of crude oil would go down. There would be a glut.

And worldwide folks seem willing to pay $40+ a barrel if that's the price.

Now IF things stabilize, and IF there is about $10 of that barrel cost which is fear, then the price might go down to something a little over $30/barrel at maximum pumping. Somewhat less pumping would mean a higher price.

And if demand didn't lessen, I'm wondering if the price of the crude oil entering the refinery/retail system won't increase dramatically as nations compete for a limited supply. And that there won't be an ability to increase supply of crude.

I'm aware they could scramble to find ways to extract more from marginal fields, and so on, and that is inherently a more expensive way to produce.

That's granting that the final price of gasoline in the US is dependent upon many factors, the price of crude being only one.

I don't know, but the idea that the producers could max out is scary.

Arf