It's been argued that new oil is constantly being discovered, and that we've always had 10 years of oil left. But I've just checked statistics from 3 years ago against those available today. The R/P ratio is the total reserves divided by the annual production. It essentially states the years remaining at current production.
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For North America, in June 2001, the R/P ratio was 13.8.
For North America, in June 2003, the R/P ratio was 10.3.
This is a decrease of 25 percent.
For South & Central America, in June 2001, the R/P ratio was 39.1.
For South & Central America, in June 2003, the R/P ratio was 42.0.
This is a increase of 7.4 percent.
For Eurasia, in June 2001, the R/P ratio was 22.7.
For Eurasia, in June 2003, the R/P ratio was 17.0.
This is a decrease of 25 percent.
For Middle East, in June 2001, the R/P ratio was 83.2.
For Middle East, in June 2003, the R/P ratio was 92.0.
This is a increase of 10.6 percent.
For Africa, in June 2001, the R/P ratio was 26.8.
For Africa, in June 2003, the R/P ratio was 27.3.
This is a increase of 1.9 percent.
For Asia-Pacific, in June 2001, the R/P ratio was 15.6.
For Asia-Pacific, in June 2003, the R/P ratio was 13.7.
This is a decrease of 12 percent.
Worldwide, in June 2001, the R/P ratio was 39.9.
Worldwide, in June 2003, the R/P ratio was 40.6.
This is an increase of 1.8 percent.
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In conclusion, the trend in North America, Eurasia, and Asia-Pacific is clear: by 2015 - 2020 most oil will come from foreign countries, resulting in increased military expenditures protecting resources that are not ours.
I'd suggest serious laws in favour of hybrid engines, flexible fuel vehicles, and cellulosic ethanol production. Current research in the US is conducted by DOE Biomass Program. Legislating all new cars to be flexible-fuel equipped will allow consumers to switch fuels without buying a new vehicle.
The amount of energy needed to propel a motor vehicle is described by the equation:
KE = 0.5 * m * v^2
where,
KE = kinetic energy
m = vehicle mass
v = vehcle speed
All highway speeds being equal only lighter vehicles will burn less fuel, regardless of vehicle type. Better aerodynamics and larger diameter wheels will help too.
My motivation? I don't own a car, but I buy goods and services whose prices are affected by the transportation sector. Perpetually increasing oil prices would put a serious dent in my quality of life. When most people hear about renewable energy, they think solar or wind energy. But it's really the transportation sector that's key, and liquid fuels the strategic focus. Therefore efforts need to be specific ---> engines, fuels, and production methods.
Proof That Oil Reserves Are Steadily Decreasing
