There's clearly movement away from Bush, to kerry. The only question is why, and is this the beginning of a meaningful "breakaway" similar to what Clinton pulled off in the Summer of 1992. Once he pulled away into the lead he never let go.

If Kerry builds and holds a lead, then Bush of course will be hoping that this is a repeat of '48, with himself playing the role of a written off incumbent underdog...

Compare the period of May 3 to the present...(Kerry leads in 11, Bush leads in 4, they're tied in 3 polls)

LA Times (6/5-8) 42% 48% 4% Kerry +6
Gallup (6/3-6) 43% 49% 5% Kerry +6
TIPP/IBD (6/1-6) 43% 41% 7% Bush +2
Zogby (6/2-5) 42% 44% 3% Kerry +2
ARG (6/1-6/3) 45% 46% 3% Kerry +1
Quinnipiac (5/18-24) 43% 42% 6% Bush +1
CNN/Gallup/USAT (5/21-23) 46% 47% 4% Kerry +1
Insider Advantage (5/21-22) 43% 43% 4% TIE
Wash Post/ABC News (5/20-23) 46% 46% 4% TIE
CBS News (5/20-23) 41% 47% 5% Kerry +6
Fox News (5/18-19) 40% 40% 3% TIE
TIPP/IBD (5/12-18) 42% 41% 7% Bush +1
Newsweek (5/13-14) 42% 43% 5% Kerry +1
Democracy Corps (5/10-13) 45% 46% 6% Kerry +1
Zogby (5/10-13) 42% 47% 3% Kerry +5
CNN/Time (5/12-13) 44% 49% 6% Kerry +5
CNN/Gallup/USAT (5/7-9) 47% 45% 5% Bush +2
Pew Research (5/3-5/9) 43% 46% 6% Kerry +3

to the previous period of April 8 thru May 3...(Bush leads in 14 polls, Kerry in 2 and 1 tie)

Ayres McHenry (5/3-5/6)* 45% 41% 5% Bush +4
ARG (5/3-6) 44% 45% 4% Kerry +1
TIPP/IBD (5/2-5/8) 46% 41% 5% Bush +5
AP/Ipsos (5/3-5) 46% 43% 7% Bush +3
CNN/Gallup/USAT (5/2-4) 47% 47% 3% TIE
NBC/WSJ (5/1-5/3) 46% 42% 5% Bush +4
Quinnipiac (4/26-5/3) 43% 40% 6% Bush +3
Sacred Heart Univ (4/26-5/1) 52% 46% 2% Bush +6
CBS News/NYT (4/23-27) 43% 41% 5% Bush +2
Marist (4/20-23) 47% 43% 5% Bush +4
Fox News/Op Dyn (4/21-22) 42% 40% 2% Bush +2
Democracy Corps (4/19-22)** 47% 44% 6% Bush +3
TIPP/IBD (4/14-4/19) 44% 40% 4% Bush +4
CNN/Gallup/USAT (4/16-4/18) 50% 44% 4% Bush +6
ABC News/WP (4/15-4/18) 48% 43% 6% Bush +5
Zogby (4/15-4/17) 44.7% 45.3% 3% Kerry +0.6
Harris (4/8-15) 46% 43% 8% Bush +3