it's ESSENTIAL to note the following:

1. This is CLOSE. Anyone who believes that the election could not go either way is too partisan to be helped.

2. A June map is NOT predictive of the November results. The world will turn over several times between now and Election Day (137 times, to be exact).

3. While the electoral total is a squeaker today, we caution that the November results may not be nearly as tight. This election could break clearly in one direction come fall, or even (as in 1980) during the last week of the campaign because of late-unfolding events.

4. Notice how many big, important states are balanced on the fencepost. These include: Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

5. Since every electoral vote might matter, please also note that there are more than a dozen smaller states which are reasonably competitive and could flip allegiances from the 2000 vote.

6. At least at the starting gate for the general election, the 2000 results have proven to be amazingly durable in drawing up today's likely Electoral College picture.

7. AS OF JUNE, three small states carried by George Bush four years ago appear to be leaning ever so slightly to John Kerry: Nevada, New Hampshire, and West Virginia. There is no Gore state from 2000 currently leaning to Bush, though Wisconsin seems to be the President's best bet. Bush is also unmistakably in the hunt for prizes such as Pennsylvania, and maybe Michigan

Crystal Ball

You will note that the election is still planned for November.

Bush poll numbers are up following the Reagan funeral. In anticipation of the transfer of power to the Iraqis over 50% now believe the war is going well or fairly well. The economy is booming and no amount of spin can change that.

The co-chair of the 911 commission chides the media for claiming there is no Iraq-al Qaida connection and agrees there was/is a connection.

As much as some wish it were not so, the Presidency will be decided by the people November 2 and not by the media's bogus headlines and liberal fantasies of the Bush administration in ruins.

Get used to the fact that there is a very reasonable chance that Bush will win.