I just finished this week's Zogby tracking survey (it's a long-term survey that monitors my political pulse for any sign of budging from giving a Bush an all-around poor rating...ha!). The lollipop at the end is to get to read some survey results and white papers from Zogby.
In their August newletter (which Rightists will enjoy for its Moore-bashing editorial), at the end, is the result of an unusual and very interesting survey. They got a thousand people to first declare themselves for Bush or Kerry. Then they posited various what-if scenarios and asked if they'd switch their votes.
One scenario involved Kerry coming out for a strong stem-cell research program. 11% of Bush supporters would switch, gifting Kerry with a 22% margin. The analysis concludes that it's Baby Boomers facing diseases of aging who'd have a lot at stake in a plan to eradicate a whole bunch of diseases.
A drop in the unemployment rate is worth 5% to Bush (10% margin).
A jump in inflation would cost Bush 19% (38% m) (ouch)
Bush would gain votes from a terrorist attack in the US, but they didn't give a number.
Looser immigration policies and easy visas would be a wash for Bush.
If Bush dumps Vice President Dick Cheney for John McCain, it's bad news for Kerry: he could lose up to 17 percent of his declared vote to Bush and others.
I don't quite follow the part about the votes going to "others", but the McCain angle is intriguing. McCain's become the kingmaker. People like him, want him for Vice President at a minimum (I think he'd make a pretty good President, myself, and voted for him in California's one and only open primary), and his choice of running mate ensures the ticket's success.
One thing people like about him is his apparent streak of integrity that makes him stand out from his slimy colleagues. Sure, he ain't Ghandi, but you at least wonder if he might think that that's too much power for one person to have in America, and decide to sit this one out.
Me, I think it'd be a waste of a perfectly good John McCain if he ran at all this season. I'd rather see him make a run for the Oval Office when the time's right. Heck, he'd probably end up running against Hillary, and wouldn't that be a hoot of an election?