No kidding. The one thing that pretty much all global warming models predict is that hurricanes will increase in frequency and severity. Last March saw the first ever hurricane in the South Atlantic, and now Ivan is the most intense hurricane ever recorded at low lattitudes. Establishing causality is very hard to do with something like climate, of course. But if global warming were occuring, this is exactly what it would look like.SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST THAT IVAN
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 115 KT. CONVECTION IS
REMARKABLY STRONG IN THE CORE REGION WITH PEAK CLOUD TOPS
APPROACHING -80 DEG C. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG IN
ALL QUADRANTS. [...]
IVAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING IVAN UP TO 125 KT AT THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SUGGESTS THAT THE
CURRENT INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL CONTINUE AS THE PROBABILITY FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NEARLY NINE TIMES THE SAMPLE MEAN. GIVEN
THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND AND THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...IVAN IS FORECAST TO REACH 130
KT IN 12 HOURS.
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