Recall the righteous indignation over the LA Times poll that showed Kerry ahead by a whopping margin, when it was revealed their base numbers were skewed? Liberal media! Liberal Media!!!!!

Were Newsweek/Time polls also wrongly skewed?

That's still a smaller lead than shown by Time and Newsweek. Those polls appear to have the mirror image problem of a Los Angeles Times poll in June reportedly showing Kerry with a huge lead. That LA Times survey included too many Democrats in their sample. Today, it seems likely that Time and Newsweek included too many Republicans. .
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If you apply those percentages to the Time internals, you find Bush up by about 3 percentage points. If you do the same with the Newsweek internal numbers, you find Bush with a six point lead.

Bush got a 4-5% bounce.
I could wail that this shows the convention was a failure, since historically incumbents get a 15-20% poll bounce, but that would be mean of me :-)

IOW, it's still a crapshoot.