Okay here it is what I've been say all along. Bush is play politics with National Security Assessments (really not a good idea!!!). First, he willingly accepted the one which said Iraq had WMD second, he rejected the next one which said there would be hell after with guerrilla warfare and now because the most recent one doesn't fit his NEOCON rose colored glasses it's "just guessing"...well they all were just guessing. Face it you fellow travelers he is a liar big time!

Published Tuesday, September 28, 2004

Prewar Assessment on Iraq Saw Chance of Strong Divisions

By DOUGLAS JEHL and DAVID E. SANGER
New York Times

WASHINGTON, Sept. 27 - The same intelligence unit that produced a gloomy report in July about the prospect of growing instability in Iraq warned the Bush administration about the potential costly consequences of an American-led invasion two months before the war began, government officials said Monday.

The estimate came in two classified reports prepared for President Bush in January 2003 by the National Intelligence Council, an independent group that advises the director of central intelligence. The assessments predicted that an American-led invasion of Iraq would increase support for political Islam and would result in a deeply divided Iraqi society prone to violent internal conflict.

One of the reports also warned of a possible insurgency against the new Iraqi government or American-led forces, saying that rogue elements from Saddam Hussein's government could work with existing terrorist groups or act independently to wage guerrilla warfare, the officials said. The assessments also said a war would increase sympathy across the Islamic world for some terrorist objectives, at least in the short run, the officials said.

The contents of the two assessments had not been previously disclosed. They were described by the officials after two weeks in which the White House had tried to minimize the council's latest report, which was prepared this summer and read by senior officials early this month.

Last week, Mr. Bush dismissed the latest intelligence reports, saying its authors were "just guessing'' about the future, though he corrected himself later, calling it an "estimate.''

the rest is here.