...Which I wrote up last May. So far, it still seems optimistic, but not impossible One thing to consider is this: the primary challenge for the X-Prize was not technical, but financial. Only two teams were ever adequately financed -- not because the amount of money was huge, but because investors were wary to put their money into something so unproven. Plus, there was that old adage about the way to make a small fortune in the space industry ("start with a large fortune").

Well, not only has Paul Allen now won a place in the history books, but he's also won both the X-Prize and the Branson prize, which translates into a heaping pile of profits. Now that this example has been set, funding for the next challenge won't be so difficult to get.

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2004: The X-Prize is won in the early fall, amid an appropriate media frenzy. Two other X-Prize teams also take to the air this year. The Falcon Explorer is finally launched near the end of the year.

2005 : A handful of additional suborbital companies begin doing test flights, while the X-Prize winner continues to refine their system, and begins offering rides to various celebrities and the like. Collectively, these suborbital outfits make a couple dozen flights over the course of the year (earning perhaps 30 people their astronaut wings). SpaceX launches four Falcon Explorers. China launches a multi-person Shenzhou mission, which lasts nearly a week. The Space Shuttle does *not* return to flight.

2006 : True commercial suborbital tourist operations begin, and well over 100 people earn their astronaut wings this year. The price initially begins at $100,000, but falls by 30% each year for the next 5 years. Suborbital companies also begin profiting from flying microgravity experiments and launching nanosats and microsats. The success of the Falcon Explorers -- about 10 flights occur this year -- gives birth to a whole new class of off-the-shelf smallsats, as LEO suddenly becomes affordable to universities, small businesses, and even consortia of non-profits and highschools. SpaceX and also launches their first Falcon V, carrying Bigelow Aerospace's 1/3rd scale space-station test article. Two more Shenzhou flights occur, practicing docking procedures with target vehicles. The Shuttle is officially mothballed (without having flown post-Columbia), and American officials are more vigorously casting about for another way to get to the ISS, in the meantime continuing to buy Soyuz flights from Russia.

2007 : The boom is now in full swing. Hundreds of suborbital flights take place, with around 1,000 people earning their astronaut wings. A competitor (perhaps Microcosm, or perhaps a re-invigorated Lockmart or Boeing) emerges to challenge SpaceX in providing cheap orbital launches. Both companies also begin collaborating with experienced suborbital operators to create orbital vehicles – which are now being demanded by both the tourist and governmental markets. China launches a small Salyut-class station, which is crewed on a part-time basis.

2008 : Over 2,000 people earn their astronaut wings in suborbital flights, although the novelty is beginning to fade slightly. Several new orbital spacecraft enter the market: one or two privately-developed US vehicles (with substantial governmental backing, per MM&B), as well as the Russian Klipper (which also has substantial private backing). The first private orbital spaceflight takes place, in a 4-person craft launched atop the a semi-reusable vehicle, which orbits the Earth several times. The ticket price is initially $5 million per person, but like the suborbital ventures, this falls by 30% per year for the next five years. Bigelow launches a small inflatable habitat, which serves as a temporarilly-inhabited destination for tourism flights. China conducts a manned circumlunar flight during the Beijing Olympics. This is done with a modified Shenzhou, and is more of a stunt than a sustainable advance in their program. Japan beings operation of a small, unmanned, suborbital VTVL.

2009 : Given the competitiveness, prestige, and strategic advantages which are increasingly associated with spaceflight, all the interested governments begin to dramatically accelerate their schedules. The US conducts its own stunt circumlunar flight; Europe and Japan intensify their domestic spacecraft development programs; India pragmatically looks towards purchasing some Russian or US commercial spacecraft. China expands its space station. Meanwhile, in the commercial sector, suborbital flights continue to slowly increase (to around 3,000 people per year), while over a hundred people make orbital flights, at increasingly reasonable prices. More companies enter the launch industry, and a new inexpensive medium-heavylift vehicle (45,000 – 100,000 lbs. To LEO) enters the market, its development largely spurred by the MM&B program.

2010 : Using the new medium-heavylift capability, Bigelow launches a cluster of several inflatable modules, forming the first true space hotel. Several hundred civilians make orbital spaceflights. Nobody bothers keeping track of the suborbital ones anymore. China performs another circumlunar flight, this time using hardware which is much more suited to the task. India launches its first astronauts, in a foreign spacecraft mounted atop a domestic ELV.

2011 : In the US, A fully-reusable space ferry commences operation, capable of shuttling a dozen people to and from orbit, and with theoretical turnaround times of a few hours. Bigelow's space hotel is expanded to accommodate them, and nearly a thousand people orbit the earth this year. A handful of commercial manufacturing facilities begin orbital operations, making exotic drugs and fiber optic materials. China and the US conduct brief lunar landings, and Russia does a circumlunar flight. Japan launches its first astronauts.

2012 : A true heavylift launch vehicle is developed, capable of launching over 100,000 lbs into LEO. Additional companies enter the space hotel & space manufacturing businesses. Thousands of people travel to and from LEO, and scores of people are orbiting the Earth at any given moment. Europe launches its first astronauts, while both Japan and India put up small space stations. China and the US both construct small, intermittently-occupied lunar bases.

2013 : Bigelow's "Lunar Cycler" is under construction. A suborbital joyride costs $3,000, while a basic ticket to orbit costs $150,000. Orbital stays range from $25,000 to $250,000 per day. The latest and greatest accommodations feature large picture windows, lunar-equivalent artificial gravity in the living areas, and sizable zero-gravity recreation rooms. LEO now has an average population of over 100 hundred people. The US and China expand their lunar bases, which can now accommodate a dozen people on a temporary basis. A commercial company lands an automated mining & manufacturing crawler on the moon, which tests the viability of constructing lunar photovoltaic farms. The law and politics of lunar real estate begins to become a rather hot topic.

2014: A long-range suborbital transport begins commercial operations. The Chinese and American lunar bases are now permanently occupied by about 20 people each, and a consortium of Russian, Indian, European, Japanese, and other interested parties begins construction of their own “non-aligned” lunar base. The US launches a Mars fly-by, while China lands on a near Earth asteroid, and officially claims it as Chinese territory. The Lunar Cycler begins commercial operations. The fracas over non-terrestrial real estate continues unabated, and is in danger of inhibiting commercial investment if it continues much longer.