October 3, 2004

BY TOM RAUM

WASHINGTON -- In the presidential campaign's closing weeks, Democrats are bracing for an ''October Surprise,'' an event so dramatic it could influence the election's outcome. The capture of Osama bin Laden, for instance.

It's part of American political lore: the party out of power worries about a last-minute surprise engineered by the party in power. Now that October has arrived, speculation is rife among Democrats that President Bush and political mastermind Karl Rove have some tricks up their sleeves.

''I assume that it will be something,'' said House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi of California. ''We have to be ready for that.''

Meanwhile, the campaigns will spend the week preparing for the next presidential debate, a town-hall forum in St. Louis on Friday in which guests ask the candidates questions, and the lone vice presidential debate, which is Tuesday in Cleveland.

The capture of the al-Qaida leader tops nearly everyone's list as a supreme example of the kind of October surprise that could help seal Bush's re-election.

Even if bin Laden remains elusive, the capture of a major terrorist leader -- bin Laden deputy Ayman al-Zawahri or Iraq's Abu Musab al-Zarqawi -- could provide an October boost for Bush.

But Ross Baker, a professor at Rutgers University, said the administration risks a backlash.

the rest at Chicago Sun-Times