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Current Events » in reply to October surprise: the jobs picture?

re: October surprise: the jobs picture?

There hasn't always been such an emphasis on the number of jobs. Traditionally, the number most closely watched by Wall Street, and by voters, was the unemployment rate. At the low point of the 1981-82
recession, there were more people working than had been employed
during the final year of Jimmy Carter's presidency, but Americans knew they were much worse off because of the unemployment rate -- 10.8 percent at its peak, versus a high for Carter's reign of 7.8 percent. This focus on the unemployment rate makes sense, because it takes into consideration the growth of the labor supply from immigration and young people reaching working age, and it also reflects changes in the number of people trying to find work.

The emphasis on the unemployment rate began to change under the first President Bush. After the 1990-91 recession, the economy experienced the first "jobless recovery," when growth in production was not accompanied by growth in employment. The unemployment rate got substantially worse as gross domestic production rose, and commentators began looking elsewhere for signs of a turnaround. It is clear in retrospect that job creation began in earnest in April 1992, five months before the unemployment rate began to turn around. Not coincidentally, this is the month that economists later decided marked the end of the recession.
[emphasis added]

"Figures don't lie, but liars figure."

I will believe there has been a turnaround when the local Sunday newspaper's want-ads go back to two sections (it's around four sheets, or 16 pages, at the moment, in a major metropolitan area), and when I can find openings for which my resume qualifies me.

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