By Dan Payne | October 9, 2004

NATIONAL POLLS show presidential race unchanged. But state polls tell another story.

Very red states. On Los Angeles Times interactive map (www.latimes.com), red (Republican) states are really red. George Bush way ahead in 21; average margin: 22 points. He's got 40-point cushion in Utah. (Must've been that Mitt Romney speech at RNC.) Bush has 177 electoral votes, with 270 needed for victory.

John Kerry's big blue states are California, Illinois, and New York, plus eight others in Northeast, good That's 153 electoral votes.

Upswing in swing states. Kerry has to win every tossup state that Al Gore carried four years ago. Kerry's moving up in all of them. In Washington, Kerry's up by 10 points; Oregon, up 10; New Mexico, up 3-11; Minnesota, up 8; Michigan, up 10; New Jersey, up 3-8; Iowa up 7; Wisconsin, up 2 1/2; and Pennsylvania, up by 5-7. If Kerry runs the table on these, he'll have 255 electoral votes. To get to 270, he needs to pocket Ohio (20).

Florida dreaming. Kerry has to overcome Bush brother Jeb, ballot mischief, cheating on overseas military ballots, major GOP absentee voting program, Ayatollah Rove's evangelical jihad, disenfranchisement of African-American voters. Desperate Bushes may steal Florida again. Only this time, results won't be close.

The newly enrolled. Not sure what to make of surge in newly registered voters. Are they Bush haters? Support Bush's war? Fundamentalist Protestants? Angry gays? Young voters? Woodstock generation? Studies of nonvoters have shown they would've voted pretty much same way as voting peers.

Poles apart. In first debate, Bush chided Kerry for not mentioning Poland's role in coalition in Iraq. "My opponent says we didn't have any allies in this war," Bush said. "What's he say to Alexander Kwasniewski of Poland?" American Progress Report says, "Kerry may not have to say anything, as Kwasniewski on Monday announced he was hopeful that 2,500 troops serving in Iraq would be withdrawn next year." Australians may withdraw forces as soon as today if opposition party wins elections. US troop deaths: 1,069.

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