If so he will win in November
The big shocker for many will be that Bush will have his best day in the debate on domestic issues.
On the war Bush is both vulnerable and emotional. On domestic issues he is in better shape than dems will ever admit and he can punch holes in Kerry's social programs easier than he can fend off attacks on a less than satisfying situation in Iraq.
Kerry's style points prevent any big victory by Bush but he will fare well and a draw will be the best Kerry can hope for.