Referring to http://denbeste.nu/special/polltrends.shtml :

"August and September are different. I've seen that kind of thing, too. In my opinion, the polls were being deliberately gimmicked, in hopes of helping Kerry. In early August it looks as if there was an attempt to engineer a "post-convention bounce", but it failed and was abandoned after about two weeks."

I don't believe the above analysis was correct. In my own opinion, the "hat function" showed for Bush during September was a consequence of the Swift Vet television advertisements. The Swift Vet advertisements broke the earlier pro-Kerry trend. However the impact of Swift Vet's ads evaporated by the end of September after the public had absorded the information and moved on to other topics. This plot shows the Swift Vet's mistimed their advertisement effort for maximum effect just as Michael Moore had earlier mistimed his anti-Bush propaganda. However the "Stolen Honor" video which will be partially broadcast today has been correctly timed for maximum impact during the actual election. I predict it will have a significant impact provided it is actually broadcast. Kerry's handlers have every reason to be afraid of "Stolen Honor". Sinclair's offer to broadcast both "Stolen Honor" along with some of Moore's rubbish for political "balance" was a clever ploy. Moore's movie has already timed out in terms of impact upon public opinion. However "Stolen Honor" is relatively new and will still has impact value. This election is all about psychology, propaganda and proper timing.

Gary