But wouldn't it be worth the extra money to give the ABM system a realistic test?

David F Mayer — 1/21/2005 9:06:13 PM (archived)

100% success is too much to expect, but 90% would be far better than the 0% that we are likely to get from a system that has never been subjected to a full-scale realistic test.

The ONLY way to be sure that it will work would be to TRY it. Fire say 50 dummy warheads at safe targets in the USA and see how many of them are actually intercepted. Anything less than that is self-delusion.

The whole thread (20 posts)

DoD taken over by lawyers - alcaray - 1/19/2005 4:24:19 PM
- figgered it out: "nascent operational capability" is what you use to counter "weapons of mass destruction-related program activities" (n/t) - alcaray - 1/20/2005 7:20:15 PM
- My personal opinion is that the Anti Ballistic Missile Defense Program is doomed to failure. - David F Mayer - 1/19/2005 10:55:40 PM
  - I think you are too pessimistic. - Scott Evil - 1/20/2005 2:21:43 PM
    - I said that the system should be tested against the number of missiles that it was designed to intercept. Not more. It would still fail miserably until quite a few FULL-SCALE tests like mine were per… (n/t) - David F Mayer - 1/20/2005 6:04:09 PM
    - "The better our defenses, the less likely we are to be attacked." - are you sure? - LJ - 1/20/2005 5:52:24 PM
      - "Mr. President! We cannot allow a mineshaft gap!" - Mary Anne - 1/21/2005 2:08:17 AM
        
        Defenses - Tom Brosz - 1/21/2005 5:38:35 PM
        
        But wouldn't it be worth the extra money to give the ABM system a realistic test? - David F Mayer - 1/21/2005 9:06:13 PM
        
        "Infallible" defense and a false sense of security - Mary Anne - 1/21/2005 8:46:48 PM
        
        re: "Infallible" defense - Tom Brosz - 1/21/2005 10:32:53 PM
  - No, the reason why such tests will never be conducted... - Larry J - 1/20/2005 1:29:32 AM
    - "Not only that, but you'd end up shooting all of your missiles every 6 months" Absurd. Of course, you have spares to replace the ones to be fired. - David F Mayer - 1/20/2005 6:02:10 PM
      - You have no clue as to how complex systems are tested - Larry J - 1/20/2005 8:36:10 PM
        
        My point is simple: Only a FULL SCALE test can prove the reliability of such a system. Look at the "Patriot 1 Missile" It was a total failure. Why? Because it had never undergone a baptisim of fire. - David F Mayer - 1/21/2005 1:47:22 AM
        
        By your "reasoning"... - Larry J - 1/21/2005 2:34:44 PM
        
        By my reasoning, the only decent test is a full-scale REALISTIC test. - David F Mayer - 1/21/2005 9:00:19 PM
- I like Ann Coulters silly rhetoric better... - Davin :. - 1/19/2005 9:30:25 PM
- US Missile Test Failure Caused By 'Minor' Glitch: General - Bowser - 1/19/2005 4:36:00 PM
  - And if the integrated system were to be tested, hundreds of minor glitches would surface, rendering it totally worthless. - David F Mayer - 1/21/2005 1:49:04 AM

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