Oh, yeah, this was a hard prediction...
From Glen Reynolds:
HERE'S THE PREDICTION ABOUT THE BRITISH ELECTIONS that I made a month ago:
If Blair loses or does badly, the press will say that the election was a referendum on the Iraq war and Bush. If Blair does better than expected, the press will say that the election was about local issues of no greater significance. (Either way, resentment of the Blair government's position on the EU and immigration will be largely ignored.)
Let's see if I turn out to have been right.