re: Betting on climate change.
One of the commenters to that RealClimate post wrote:
"The auction market does not depend upon classical efficient market theory as much as it depends upon people's natural caution -- the fact that losing hurts more than winning gives pleasure. This tends to tone down "wild" claims that normally take precedence either in a group of similarly-minded people or in the race to be noticed by the media."
That's one of the reasons why I've brought up the idea of betting several times here at HZ. And the possibility of making some money.