I'm in a discussion with a couple of guys on another board who think we'll save nothing or no better than a factor of 2 in costs and safety with the shuttle derived HLLV and CEV launch vehicles. From what I've read I was under the impression the new architecture would be far cheaper and safer.

I know this stuff hasn't been developed yet but can the booster-based CEV launcher be as cheap as a Ruskie Soyuz (around $50m I believe)? Won't the HLLV be far cheaper than a shuttle launch? Any idea the costs of launching 100+ tons to LEO on the in-line HLLV?

Putting the CEV on the top of the rocket makes it vastly safer than the shuttle, but by how much? 10 times safer? 100 times?