"To decide who wins the bet, the scientists have agreed to compare the average global surface temperature recorded by a US climate centre between 1998 and 2003, with temperatures they will record between 2012 and 2017.

If the temperature drops Dr Annan will stump up the $10,000 (now equivalent to about £5,800) in 2018. If the Earth continues to warm, the money will go the other way."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,3604,1552092,00.html
I wonder what this average temperature is between '98 and '03.
Accord to this graph:

This period of time looks roughly around .2 C above the graph's baseline [which spans from '78 to '04], but this is not neccessarily the same as the "US climate centre" that's being referred to.
It seems like a fairly even bet, but all Dr Annan needs is say .05 C increase and he wins and present trends are indicating more than .05 C per decade. What favors the Russians is that we could very well be near a small peak in a more gradual longer warming tread. But even if this is right it could drop and then be climbing again by the '12 and '17 [or Sunspot activity can be somewhat predicted in short term, but I don't think you can accurately predict them in the '12 - '17 time period].