Current Events — HabitableZone

Current Events » in reply to "Some Thoughts on Casualties in Times of War and Peace"

Sometimes reality matters too

It was interesting that all of Hindraker's examples of battles generally thought of as successes where he rhetorically asks, "What if the media had only reported the casualties?", were in fact, major and unambiguous successes. All of them (all WWII examples) involved American forces capturing easily definable pieces of territory that had previously been held by enemy forces.

Similarly, in 2003, when American forces captured easily defined territory that had previously been held by Iraqis -- not least their capital city -- the media reported that with great fanfare. There was not much analysis of deeper strategic issues, for example the possibility that the lack of resistance was partly due to Baathists melting away to prepare for an insurgency.

Fighting an insurgency is far more complex, the metrics that show you making progress tend to be rather indirect and far less dramatic than the latest ambush or IED. That the media focus on attacks has at least as much to do with their desire for simplicity, drama, and arresting visuals as with anti-Americanism -- it's the same forces that lead them to start every night's broadcast with the drive-by shooting at a liquor store, and to ignore the program that over several years, dozens of different schools, has made a big dent in the number of students joining gangs. Heck, in case a story that led a bunch of local TV news broadcasts several years ago was a gasoline tanker in _Australia_ flipping over and exploding. Did it have any local relevance? No. Any important lessons for us? No. But it was damn good TV! And the studies I'm familiar with show that in general, the producers are right -- episodic, disocnnected, personality-focussed, dramatic, simple, violent stories are indeed what keep viewers tuned in.

It's also worth noting that even in WWII, casualties mattered. After the carnage of Iwo Jima and especially Okinawa, desipte the generally supportive press coverage, polls by the Administration (as well as LTEs, etc) showed a significant and growing fraction of the public willing to accept a negotiated, even generous peace with Japan rather than invading their Home Islands.

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