I've been working to do something like this for over thirty years. We always knew that the private sector could do it, and that the development costs would be far less than the governments. All it took was somebody with enough money to buckle down and do it, and until a few years ago, few people with enough money would believe it was possible.

Just having the private sector do it isn't enough by itself. Beal gave up when it got rough. Kistler, although a private company, had too much NASA-style thinking on board, and its costs remained far too high. It's main investor just bailed out, and they're cutting staff. Kistler, like Rotary Rocket, had pinned its hopes on a potential large market for small, LEO comsats. When that market tanked, so did Rotary Rocket. Kistler deserves credit for hanging on as long as they did.

And of course, there are still more private outfits out there. Virgin and Rutan are a hot item, and you can bet there's orbital systems being worked out on napkins over there.

Dark horses like Armadillo and others are by no means out of the picture yet either.

I highly suspect that by the time NASA's new systems are flying, they're going to be almost redundant.